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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning 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A comparison between Bayesian and ordinary kriging based on validation criteria: application to radiological characterisation
2023-05-12 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In decommissioning projects of nuclear facilities, the radiological characterisation step aims to estimate the quantity and spatial distribution of different radionuclides. To carry out the estimation, measurements are performed on site to obtain preliminary information. The usual industrial practice consists in applying spatial interpolation tools (as the ordinary kriging method) on these data to predict the value of interest for the contamination (radionuclide concentration, radioactivity, etc.) at unobserved positions. This paper questions the ordinary kriging tool on the well-known problem of the overoptimistic prediction variances due to not taking into account uncertainties on the estimation of the kriging parameters (variance and range). To overcome this issue, the practical use of the Bayesian kriging method, where the model parameters are considered as random variables, is deepened. The usefulness of Bayesian kriging, whilst comparing its performance to that of ordinary kriging, is demonstrated in the small data context (which is often the case in decommissioning projects). This result is obtained via several numerical tests on different toy models, and using complementary validation criteria: the predictivity coefficient (Q${}^2$), the Predictive Variance Adequacy (PVA), the $α$-Confidence Interval plot (and its associated Mean Squared Error alpha (MSEalpha)), and the Predictive Interval Adequacy (PIA). The latter is a new criterion adapted to the Bayesian kriging results. Finally, the same comparison is performed on a real dataset coming from the decommissioning project of the CEA Marcoule G3 reactor. It illustrates the practical interest of Bayesian kriging in industrial radiological characterisation.