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Empirical Bayes improvement of Kalman filter type of esti...
E. Greenshtein, A. Mansura, Y. Ritov · 2014-06-04 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We consider the problem of estimating the means $μ_i$ of $n$ random variables $Y_i \sim N(μ_i,1)$, $i=1,\ldots ,n$. Assuming some structure on the $μ$ process, e.g., a state space model, one may use a summary statistics for the contribution of the rest of the observations to the estimation of $μ_i$. The most important example for this is the Kalman filter. We introduce a non-linear improvement of the standard weighted average of the given summary statistics and $Y_i$ itself, using empirical Bayes methods. The improvement is obtained under mild assumptions. It is strict when the process that governs the states $μ_1,\ldots,μ_n $ is not a linear Gaussian state-space model. We consider both the sequential and the retrospective estimation problems.