惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

雷峰网
雷峰网
爱范儿
爱范儿
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
博客园 - Franky
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
博客园 - 聂微东
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
罗磊的独立博客
博客园 - 叶小钗
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
小众软件
小众软件
博客园 - 司徒正美
博客园 - 【当耐特】
IT之家
IT之家

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Adaptive Poisson disorder problem
Erhan Bayraktar, Savas Dayanik, Ioannis Karatzas · 2006-10-05 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We study the quickest detection problem of a sudden change in the arrival rate of a Poisson process from a known value to an unknown and unobservable value at an unknown and unobservable disorder time. Our objective is to design an alarm time which is adapted to the history of the arrival process and detects the disorder time as soon as possible. In previous solvable versions of the Poisson disorder problem, the arrival rate after the disorder has been assumed a known constant. In reality, however, we may at most have some prior information about the likely values of the new arrival rate before the disorder actually happens, and insufficient estimates of the new rate after the disorder happens. Consequently, we assume in this paper that the new arrival rate after the disorder is a random variable. The detection problem is shown to admit a finite-dimensional Markovian sufficient statistic, if the new rate has a discrete distribution with finitely many atoms. Furthermore, the detection problem is cast as a discounted optimal stopping problem with running cost for a finite-dimensional piecewise-deterministic Markov process. This optimal stopping problem is studied in detail in the special case where the new arrival rate has Bernoulli distribution. This is a nontrivial optimal stopping problem for a two-dimensional piecewise-deterministic Markov process driven by the same point process. Using a suitable single-jump operator, we solve it fully, describe the analytic properties of the value function and the stopping region, and present methods for their numerical calculation. We provide a concrete example where the value function does not satisfy the smooth-fit principle on a proper subset of the connected, continuously differentiable optimal stopping boundary, whereas it does on the complement of this set.