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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Stopping Rules for Stochastic Gradient Descent via Anytim...
Liviu Aolaritei, Michael I. Jordan · 2025-12-15 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

The problem of stopping stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in an online manner, based solely on the observed trajectory, is a challenging theoretical problem with significant consequences for applications. While SGD is routinely monitored as it runs, the classical theory of SGD provides guarantees only at pre-specified iteration horizons and offers no valid way to decide, based on the observed trajectory, when further computation is justified. We address this longstanding gap by developing anytime-valid confidence sequences for stochastic gradient methods, which remain valid under continuous monitoring and directly induce statistically valid, trajectory-dependent stopping rules: stop as soon as the current upper confidence bound on an appropriate performance measure falls below a user-specified tolerance. The confidence sequences are constructed using nonnegative supermartingales, are time-uniform, and depend only on observable quantities along the SGD trajectory, without requiring prior knowledge of the optimization horizon. In convex optimization, this yields anytime-valid certificates for weighted suboptimality of projected SGD under general stepsize schedules, without assuming smoothness or strong convexity. In nonconvex optimization, it yields time-uniform certificates for weighted first-order stationarity under smoothness assumptions. We further characterize the stopping-time complexity of the resulting stopping rules under standard stepsize schedules. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first framework that provides statistically valid, time-uniform stopping rules for SGD across both convex and nonconvex settings based solely on its observed trajectory.