惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

博客园_首页
博客园 - Franky
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
量子位
博客园 - 聂微东
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
爱范儿
爱范儿
V
Visual Studio Blog
雷峰网
雷峰网
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
博客园 - 叶小钗
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
U
Unit 42
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
小众软件
小众软件
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
Y
Y Combinator Blog

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Overfitting hidden Markov models with an unknown number o...
Zoé van Havre, Judith Rousseau, Nicole White, Kerrie Mengersen · 2016-02-08 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed which favours configurations where the hidden Markov chain remains ergodic although it empties out some of the states. Asymptotic posterior convergence rates are proven theoretically, and demonstrated with a large sample simulation. The problem of overfitted HMMs is then considered in the context of smaller sample sizes, and due to computational and mixing issues two alternative prior structures are studied, one commonly used in practice, and a mixture of the two priors. The Prior Parallel Tempering approach of van Havre (2015) is also extended to HMMs to allow MCMC estimation of the complex posterior space. A replicate simulation study and an in-depth exploration is performed to compare the three priors with hyperparameters chosen according to the asymptotic constraints alongside less informative alternatives.