惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
D
DataBreaches.Net
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
量子位
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
The Cloudflare Blog
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
P
Proofpoint News Feed
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
B
Blog RSS Feed
B
Blog
博客园_首页
博客园 - Franky
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
爱范儿
爱范儿
H
Help Net Security
Y
Y Combinator Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Uncertainty quantification via cross-validation and its v...
Nicolai Amann, Hannes Leeb, Lukas Steinberger · 2023-12-22 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Recently, there has been substantial interest in statistical guarantees for cross-validation (CV) methods of uncertainty quantification in statistical learning (cf. Barber et al. 2021a, Liang and Barber 2024, Steinberger and Leeb 2023). These guarantees should hold under minimal assumptions on the data generating process and conditional on the training data, because numerous predictions are usually computed based on one and the same training sample. We push this objective to the limit: We prove asymptotic conditional conservativeness of CV, that is, the probability of the actual coverage probability, conditional on the training data, undershooting its nominal level vanishes asymptotically, under minimal assumptions. In particular, we impose a stability condition, require that the prediction error is stochastically bounded, and show that neither condition can be dropped in general. By way of an asymptotic equivalence result, we also show that the closely related CV+ method of Barber et al. (2021a) provides exactly the same conditional statistical guarantees as CV in large samples, thereby extending the range of applicability of CV+ to the high-dimensional regime. We conclude that, in view of its marginal coverage guarantee, CV+ does indeed improve over simple CV. For our proofs we introduce a new concept called Lévy gauge, which can be of independent interest.