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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Second-Order Inference for the Mean of a Variable Missing...
Iván Díaz, Marco Carone, Mark J. van der Laan · 2015-11-26 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We present a second-order estimator of the mean of a variable subject to missingness, under the missing at random assumption. The estimator improves upon existing methods by using an approximate second-order expansion of the parameter functional, in addition to the first-order expansion employed by standard doubly robust methods. This results in weaker assumptions about the convergence rates necessary to establish consistency, local efficiency, and asymptotic linearity. The general estimation strategy is developed under the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) framework. We present a simulation comparing the sensitivity of the first and second order estimators to the convergence rate of the initial estimators of the outcome regression and missingness score. In our simulation, the second-order TMLE improved the coverage probability of a confidence interval by up to 85%. In addition, we present a first-order estimator inspired by a second-order expansion of the parameter functional. This estimator only requires one-dimensional smoothing, whereas implementation of the second-order TMLE generally requires kernel smoothing on the covariate space. The first-order estimator proposed is expected to have improved finite sample performance compared to existing first-order estimators. In our simulations, the proposed first-order estimator improved the coverage probability by up to 90%. We provide an illustration of our methods using a publicly available dataset to determine the effect of an anticoagulant on health outcomes of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. We provide R code implementing the proposed estimator.