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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Structural Nested Mean Models Under Parallel Trends Assum...
Zach Shahn, Oliver Dukes, Meghana Shamsunder, David Richardson, · 2022-04-22 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We link and extend two approaches to estimating time-varying treatment effects on repeated continuous outcomes--time-varying Difference in Differences (DiD; see Roth et al. (2023) and Chaisemartin et al. (2023) for reviews) and Structural Nested Mean Models (SNMMs; see Vansteelandt and Joffe (2014) for a review). In particular, we show that SNMMs, previously known to be nonparametrically identified under a no unobserved confounding assumption, are also identified under a conditional parallel trends assumption similar to those typically used to justify time-varying DiD methods (but more amenable to time-varying confounding). Because SNMMs model a broader set of causal estimands, our results allow practitioners of time-varying DiD approaches to address additional types of substantive questions under similar assumptions. SNMMs enable estimation of time-varying effect heterogeneity, lasting effects of a `blip' of treatment at a single time point, effects of sustained interventions (possibly on continuous or multi-dimensional treatments) when treatment repeatedly changes value in the data, controlled direct effects, effects of dynamic treatment strategies that depend on covariate history, and more. We provide a method for sensitivity analysis to violations of our parallel trends assumption. We further explain how to estimate optimal treatment regimes via optimal regime SNMMs under parallel trends assumptions plus an assumption that there is no effect modification by unobserved confounders. Finally, we illustrate our methods with real data applications estimating effects of Medicaid expansion on uninsurance rates, effects of floods on flood insurance take-up, and effects of sustained changes in temperature on crop yields.