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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Bias-Aware Conformal Prediction for Metric-Based Imaging ...
Matt Y. Cheung, Tucker J. Netherton, Laurence E. Court, Ashok Ve · 2024-10-08 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Reliable confidence measures of metrics derived from medical imaging reconstruction pipelines would improve the standard of decision-making in many clinical workflows. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a robust framework for producing calibrated prediction intervals, but standard CP formulations face a critical challenge in the imaging pipeline: common mismatches between image reconstruction objectives and downstream metrics can introduce systematic prediction deviations from ground truth values, known as bias. These biases in turn compromise the efficiency of prediction intervals, which is a problem that has been unexplored in the CP literature. In this study, we formalize the behavior of symmetric (where bounds expand equally in both directions) and asymmetric (where bounds expand unequally) formulations for common non-conformity scores in CP in the presence of bias, and argue that this measurable bias must inform the choice of CP formulation. We theoretically and empirically demonstrate that symmetric intervals are inflated by a factor of two times the magnitude of bias while asymmetric intervals remain unaffected by bias, and provide conditions under which each formulation produces tighter intervals. We empirically validated our theoretical analyses on sparse-view CT reconstruction for downstream radiotherapy planning. Our work enables users of medical imaging pipelines to proactively select optimal CP formulations, thereby improving interval length efficiency for critical downstream metrics.