We conduct an asymptotic risk analysis of the nonlocal means image denoising algorithm for the Horizon class of images that are piecewise constant with a sharp edge discontinuity. We prove that the mean square risk of an optimally tuned nonlocal means algorithm decays according to $n^{-1}\log^{1/2+ε} n$, for an $n$-pixel image with $ε>0$. This decay rate is an improvement over some of the predecessors of this algorithm, including the linear convolution filter, median filter, and the SUSAN filter, each of which provides a rate of only $n^{-2/3}$. It is also within a logarithmic factor from optimally tuned wavelet thresholding. However, it is still substantially lower than the the optimal minimax rate of $n^{-4/3}$.