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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
On Predictive Density Estimation for Location Families un...
Tatsuya Kubokawa, Éric Marchand, William E. Strawderman · 2014-08-22 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Our investigation concerns the estimation of predictive densities and a study of efficiency as measured by the frequentist risk of such predictive densities with integrated $L_2$ and $L_1$ losses. Our findings relate to a $p-$variate spherically symmetric observable $X \sim p_X(\|x-μ\|^2)$ and the objective of estimating the density of $Y \sim q_Y(\|y-μ\|^2)$ based on $X$. For $L_2$ loss, we describe Bayes estimation, minimum risk equivariant estimation (MRE), and minimax estimation. We focus on the risk performance of the benchmark minimum risk equivariant estimator, plug-in estimators, and plug-in type estimators with expanded scale. For the multivariate normal case, we make use of a duality result with a point estimation problem bringing into play reflected normal loss. In three of more dimensions (i.e., $p \geq 3$), we show that the MRE estimator is inadmissible under $L_2$ loss and provide dominating estimators. This brings into play Stein-type results for estimating a multivariate normal mean with a loss which is a concave and increasing function of $\|\hatμ-μ\|^2$. We also study the phenomenon of improvement on the plug-in density estimator of the form $q_Y(\|y-aX\|^2)\,, 0<a \leq 1\,,$ by a subclass of scale expansions $\frac{1}{c^p} \, q_Y(\|(y -aX)/c \|^2)$ with $c>1$, showing in some cases, inevitably for large enough $p$, that all choices $c>1$ are dominating estimators. Extensions are obtained for scale mixture of normals including a general inadmissibility result of the MRE estimator for $p \geq 3$. Finally, we describe and expand on analogous plug-in dominance results for spherically symmetric distributions with $p \geq 4$ under $L_1$ loss.