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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
The Computational Complexity of Estimating Convergence Time
Nayantara Bhatnagar, Andrej Bogdanov, Elchanan Mossel · 2010-07-01 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

An important problem in the implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms is to determine the convergence time, or the number of iterations before the chain is close to stationarity. For many Markov chains used in practice this time is not known. Even in cases where the convergence time is known to be polynomial, the theoretical bounds are often too crude to be practical. Thus, practitioners like to carry out some form of statistical analysis in order to assess convergence. This has led to the development of a number of methods known as convergence diagnostics which attempt to diagnose whether the Markov chain is far from stationarity. We study the problem of testing convergence in the following settings and prove that the problem is hard in a computational sense: Given a Markov chain that mixes rapidly, it is hard for Statistical Zero Knowledge (SZK-hard) to distinguish whether starting from a given state, the chain is close to stationarity by time t or far from stationarity at time ct for a constant c. We show the problem is in AM intersect coAM. Second, given a Markov chain that mixes rapidly it is coNP-hard to distinguish whether it is close to stationarity by time t or far from stationarity at time ct for a constant c. The problem is in coAM. Finally, it is PSPACE-complete to distinguish whether the Markov chain is close to stationarity by time t or far from being mixed at time ct for c at least 1.