惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

D
Docker
I
InfoQ
L
LangChain Blog
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
Y
Y Combinator Blog
博客园_首页
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
A
About on SuperTechFans
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
Vercel News
Vercel News
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
C
Check Point Blog
B
Blog RSS Feed
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
B
Blog
爱范儿
爱范儿
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
F
Fortinet All Blogs
月光博客
月光博客
GbyAI
GbyAI

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Probabilistic closed-form formulas for pricing nonlinear ...
Nontawat Bunchak, Udomsak Rakwongwan, Phiraphat Sutthimat · 2025-06-18 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

This paper presents closed-form analytical formulas for pricing volatility and variance derivatives with nonlinear payoffs under discrete-time observations. The analysis is based on a probabilistic approach assuming that the underlying asset price follows the Schwartz one-factor model, where the volatility of log-returns is time-varying. A difficult challenge in this pricing problem is to solve an analytical formula under the assumption of time-varying log-return volatility, resulting in the realized variance being distributed according to a linear combination of independent noncentral chi-square random variables with weighted parameters. By utilizing the probability density function, we analytically compute the expectation of the square root of the realized variance and derive pricing formulas for volatility swaps. Additionally, we derive analytical pricing formulas for volatility call options. For the payoff function without the square root, we also derive corresponding formulas for variance swaps and variance call options. Additionally, we study the case of constant log-return volatility; simplified pricing formulas are derived and sensitivity with respect to volatility (vega) is analytically studied. Furthermore,we propose simple closed-form approximations for pricing volatility swaps under the Schwartz one-factor model. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methods are demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations, and the impact of price volatility and the number of trading days on fair strike prices of volatility and variance swaps is investigated across various numerical experiments.