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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Estimating Counts Through an Average Rounded to the Neare...
Roberto Rivera, Axel Cortes-Cubero, Roberto Reyes-Carranza, Wolf · 2021-07-04 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In practice, the use of rounding is ubiquitous. Although researchers have looked at the implications of rounding continuous random variables, rounding may also be applied to functions of discrete random variables. For example, to infer the number of excess deaths due to falls after a national emergency, authorities may only provide a rounded average of deaths before and after the emergency started. Deaths from falling tend to be relatively low in most places, and such rounding may seriously affect inference on the change in the rate of deaths. In this paper, we study drawing inference on a parameter fromthe probability mass function of a non-negative discrete random variableY , when for rounding coarsening width h we get U = h[Y /h] as a proxy forY . We show that the probability generating function of U, E(U), and Var(U) capture the effect of the coarsening of the support of Y . Theoretical properties are explored further under some probability distributions. Moreover, we introduce two relative risks of rounding metrics to aid the numerical assessment of how sensitive the results may be to rounding. Under certain conditions, rounding has little impact. However, we also find scenarios where rounding can significantly affect statistical inference. The methods are applied to infer the probability of success of a binomial distribution and estimate the excess deaths due to Hurricane Maria. The simple methods we propose can partially counter rounding error effects.