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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Divergence vs. Decision P-values: A Distinction Worth Mak...
Sander Greenland · 2023-01-06 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

There are two distinct definitions of 'P-value' for evaluating a proposed hypothesis or model for the process generating an observed dataset. The original definition starts with a measure of the divergence of the dataset from what was expected under the model, such as a sum of squares or a deviance statistic. A P-value is then the ordinal location of the measure in a reference distribution computed from the model and the data, and is treated as a unit-scaled index of compatibility between the data and the model. In the other definition, a P-value is a random variable on the unit interval whose realizations can be compared to a cutoff alpha to generate a decision rule with known error rates under the model and specific alternatives. It is commonly assumed that realizations of such decision P-values always correspond to divergence P-values. But this need not be so: Decision P-values can violate intuitive single-sample coherence criteria where divergence P-values do not. It is thus argued that divergence and decision P-values should be carefully distinguished in teaching, and that divergence P-values are the relevant choice when the analysis goal is to summarize evidence rather than implement a decision rule.