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A Central Limit Theorem for the permutation importance me...
[Submitted on 17 Dec 2024 (v1), last revised 5 Sep 2026 (this ve · 2024-12-17 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:Random Forests have become a widely used tool in machine learning since their introduction in 2001, known for their strong performance in classification and regression tasks. One key feature of Random Forests is the Random Forest Permutation Importance Measure (RFPIM), an internal, non-parametric measure of variable importance. While widely used, theoretical work on RFPIM is sparse, and most research has focused on empirical findings. However, recent progress has been made, such as establishing consistency of the RFPIM, although a mathematical analysis of its asymptotic distribution is still missing. In this paper, we provide a formal proof of a Central Limit Theorem for RFPIM using U-Statistics theory. Our approach deviates from the conventional Random Forest model by assuming a random number of trees and imposing conditions on the regression functions and error terms, which must be bounded and additive, respectively. Our result aims at improving the theoretical understanding of RFPIM rather than conducting comprehensive hypothesis testing. However, our contributions provide a solid foundation and demonstrate the potential for future work to extend to practical applications which we also highlight with a small simulation study.

Submission history

From: Nico Föge [view email]
[v1] Tue, 17 Dec 2024 15:40:21 UTC (132 KB)
[v2] Wed, 17 Dec 2025 09:37:43 UTC (132 KB)
[v3] Sat, 5 Sep 2026 12:14:29 UTC (132 KB)