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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models Direct Estimation of Schrödinger Bridge Time-Series Drifts: Finite-Sample, Asymptotic, and Adaptive Guarantees Information-theoretic Limits of Learning and Estimation Adaptivity Under Realizability Constraints: Comparing In-Context and Agentic Learning Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories: Second-Moment Geometry, Attribution, and Change Points Causal discovery under mean independence and linearity Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Vanishing L2 regularization for the softmax Multi Armed Bandit Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints Intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued Markov chain Monte Carlo via kernel discrepancy On the Optimal Sample Complexity of Offline Multi-Armed Bandits with KL Regularization Extrapolation in Statistical Learning with Extreme Value Theory Adaptive Estimation and Inference in Semi-parametric Heterogeneous Clustered Multitask Learning via Neyman Orthogonality Beyond ECE: Calibrated Size Ratio, Risk Assessment, and Confidence-Weighted Metrics Self-Normalized Martingales and Uniform Regret Bounds for Linear Regression Mean Testing under Truncation beyond Gaussian Decoupled Descent: Exact Test Error Tracking Via Approximate Message Passing Hyper Input Convex Neural Networks for Shape Constrained Learning and Optimal Transport Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time Elite-Driven Support Vector Machines for Classification A Limit Theory of Foundation Models: A Mathematical Approach to Understanding Emergent Intelligence and Scaling Laws Learning Curves and Benign Overfitting of Spectral Algorithms in Large Dimensions Concave Statistical Utility Maximization Bandits via Influence-Function Gradients The Sample Complexity of Multicalibration Cover meets Robbins while 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probabilistic forecast using MMAF-guided learning The Geometry of Knowing: From Possibilistic Ignorance to Probabilistic Certainty -- A Measure-Theoretic Framework for Epistemic Convergence Generalization Properties of Score-matching Diffusion Models for Intrinsically Low-dimensional Data Conformal Policy Control Continuous-time reinforcement learning: ellipticity enables model-free value function approximation High-accuracy sampling for diffusion models and log-concave distributions Analyzing Shapley Additive Explanations to Understand Anomaly Detection Algorithm Behaviors and Their Complementarity Optimal Lower Bounds for Online Multicalibration Understanding Overparametrization in Survival Models through Interpolation Eventually LIL Regret: Almost Sure $\ln\ln T$ Regret for a sub-Gaussian Mixture on Unbounded Data Limit Theorems for Stochastic Gradient Descent in High-Dimensional Single-Layer Networks Optimal In-context Adaptivity and Distributional Robustness of Transformers Don't 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Practically significant change points in high dimension -- measuring signal strength pro active component
Pascal Quanz, Holger Dette · 2025-08-29 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We consider the change point testing problem for high-dimensional time series. Unlike conventional approaches, where one tests whether the difference $δ$ of the mean vectors before and after the change point is equal to zero, we argue that the consideration of the null hypothesis $H_0:\|δ\|\leΔ$, for some norm $\|\cdot\|$ and a threshold $Δ>0$, is better suited. By the formulation of the null hypothesis as a composite hypothesis, the change point testing problem becomes significantly more challenging. We develop pivotal inference for testing hypotheses of this type in the setting of high-dimensional time series, first, measuring deviations from the null vector by the $\ell_2$-norm $\|\cdot\|_2$ normalized by the dimension. Second, by measuring deviations using a sparsity adjusted $\ell_2$-"norm" $\|\cdot \|_2/\sqrt{\|\cdot\|_0} $, where $\|\cdot\|_0$ denotes the $\ell_0$-"norm," we propose a pivotal test procedure which intrinsically adapts to sparse alternatives in a data-driven way by pivotally estimating the set of nonzero entries of the vector $δ$. To establish the statistical validity of our approach, we derive tail bounds of certain classes of distributions that frequently appear as limiting distributions of self-normalized statistics. As a theoretical foundation for all results, we develop a general weak invariance principle for the partial sum process $X_1^\topξ+\cdots +X_{\lfloorλn\rfloor}^\topξ$ for a time series $(X_j)_{j\in\mathbb{Z}}$ and a contrast vector $ξ\in\mathbb{R}^p$ under increasing dimension $p$, which is of independent interest. Finally, we investigate the finite sample properties of the tests by means of a simulation study and illustrate its application in a data example.