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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models Direct Estimation of Schrödinger Bridge Time-Series Drifts: Finite-Sample, Asymptotic, and Adaptive Guarantees Information-theoretic Limits of Learning and Estimation Adaptivity Under Realizability Constraints: Comparing In-Context and Agentic Learning Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories: Second-Moment Geometry, Attribution, and Change Points Causal discovery under mean independence and linearity Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Vanishing L2 regularization for the softmax Multi Armed Bandit Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints Intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued Markov chain Monte Carlo via kernel discrepancy On the Optimal Sample Complexity of Offline Multi-Armed Bandits with KL Regularization Extrapolation in Statistical Learning with Extreme Value Theory Adaptive Estimation and Inference in Semi-parametric Heterogeneous Clustered Multitask Learning via Neyman Orthogonality Beyond ECE: Calibrated Size Ratio, Risk Assessment, and Confidence-Weighted Metrics Self-Normalized Martingales and Uniform Regret Bounds for Linear Regression Mean Testing under Truncation beyond Gaussian Decoupled Descent: Exact Test Error Tracking Via Approximate Message Passing Hyper Input Convex Neural Networks for Shape Constrained Learning and Optimal Transport Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time Elite-Driven Support Vector Machines for Classification A Limit Theory of Foundation Models: A Mathematical Approach to Understanding Emergent Intelligence and Scaling Laws Learning Curves and Benign Overfitting of Spectral Algorithms in Large Dimensions Concave Statistical Utility Maximization Bandits via Influence-Function Gradients The Sample Complexity of Multicalibration Cover meets Robbins while 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probabilistic forecast using MMAF-guided learning The Geometry of Knowing: From Possibilistic Ignorance to Probabilistic Certainty -- A Measure-Theoretic Framework for Epistemic Convergence Generalization Properties of Score-matching Diffusion Models for Intrinsically Low-dimensional Data Conformal Policy Control Continuous-time reinforcement learning: ellipticity enables model-free value function approximation High-accuracy sampling for diffusion models and log-concave distributions Analyzing Shapley Additive Explanations to Understand Anomaly Detection Algorithm Behaviors and Their Complementarity Optimal Lower Bounds for Online Multicalibration Understanding Overparametrization in Survival Models through Interpolation Eventually LIL Regret: Almost Sure $\ln\ln T$ Regret for a sub-Gaussian Mixture on Unbounded Data Limit Theorems for Stochastic Gradient Descent in High-Dimensional Single-Layer Networks Optimal In-context Adaptivity and Distributional Robustness of Transformers Don't Pass@k: A Bayesian Framework for Large Language Model Evaluation The Good, the Bad, and the Sampled: a No-Regret Approach to Safe Online Classification GOSPA and T-GOSPA quasi-metrics for evaluation of multi-object tracking algorithms A note on the unique properties of the Kullback--Leibler divergence for sampling via gradient flows Multi-Armed Bandits With Machine Learning-Generated Surrogate Rewards Efficient compression of neural networks and datasets Out-of-Distribution Generalization of In-Context Learning: A Low-Dimensional Subspace Perspective Super-fast Rates of Convergence for Neural Network Classifiers under the Hard Margin Condition Sharp Gaussian approximations for Decentralized Federated Learning Learning Operators by Regularized Stochastic Gradient Descent with Operator-valued Kernels Smoothed Analysis of Learning from Positive Samples Statistical Impossibility and Possibility of Aligning LLMs with Human Preferences: From Condorcet Paradox to Nash Equilibrium Sharp Risk 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Posterior Concentration for Bayesian Regression Trees and Forests
Veronika Rockova, Stephanie van der Pas · 2017-08-29 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Since their inception in the 1980's, regression trees have been one of the more widely used non-parametric prediction methods. Tree-structured methods yield a histogram reconstruction of the regression surface, where the bins correspond to terminal nodes of recursive partitioning. Trees are powerful, yet susceptible to over-fitting. Strategies against overfitting have traditionally relied on pruning greedily grown trees. The Bayesian framework offers an alternative remedy against overfitting through priors. Roughly speaking, a good prior charges smaller trees where overfitting does not occur. While the consistency of random histograms, trees and their ensembles has been studied quite extensively, the theoretical understanding of the Bayesian counterparts has been missing. In this paper, we take a step towards understanding why/when do Bayesian trees and their ensembles not overfit. To address this question, we study the speed at which the posterior concentrates around the true smooth regression function. We propose a spike-and-tree variant of the popular Bayesian CART prior and establish new theoretical results showing that regression trees (and their ensembles) (a) are capable of recovering smooth regression surfaces, achieving optimal rates up to a log factor, (b) can adapt to the unknown level of smoothness and (c) can perform effective dimension reduction when p>n. These results provide a piece of missing theoretical evidence explaining why Bayesian trees (and additive variants thereof) have worked so well in practice.