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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Performative Learning Theory
Julian Rodemann, Unai Fischer-Abaigar, James Bailie, Krikamol Mu · 2026-02-04 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises the question of how well models generalize under performativity. For example, how well can we draw insights about new app users based on existing users when both of them react to the app's predictions? We address this question by embedding performative predictions into statistical learning theory. We prove generalization bounds under performative effects on the sample, on the population, and on both. A key intuition behind our proofs is that in the worst case, the population negates predictions, while the sample deceptively fulfills them. We cast such self-negating and self-fulfilling predictions as min-max and min-min risk functionals in Wasserstein space, respectively. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off between performatively changing the world and learning from it: the more a model affects data, the less it can learn from it. Moreover, our analysis results in a surprising insight on how to improve generalization guarantees by retraining on performatively distorted samples. We illustrate our bounds in a case study on prediction-informed assignments of unemployed German residents to job trainings, drawing upon administrative labor market records from 1975 to 2017 in Germany.