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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
The Population Resemblance Statistic: A Chi-Square Measur...
Nelis Potgieter, Corli van Zyl, WD Schutte, Fred Lombard · 2023-07-22 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

The Population Stability Index (PSI) is a widely used measure in credit risk modeling and monitoring within the banking industry. Its purpose is to monitor for changes in the population underlying a model, such as a scorecard, to ensure that the current population closely resembles the one used during model development. If substantial differences between populations are detected, model reconstruction may be necessary. Despite its widespread use, the origins and properties of the PSI are not well documented. Previous literature has suggested using arbitrary constants as a rule-of-thumb to assess resemblance (or "stability"), regardless of sample size. However, this approach too often calls for model reconstruction in small sample sizes while not detecting the need often enough in large sample sizes. This paper introduces an alternative discrepancy measure, the Population Resemblance statistic (PRS), based on the Pearson chi-square statistic. Properties of the PRS follow from the non-central chi-square distribution. Specifically, the PRS allows for critical values that are configured according to sample size and the number of risk categories. Implementation relies on the specification of a set of parameters, enabling practitioners to calibrate the procedure with their risk tolerance and sensitivity to population shifts. The PRS is demonstrated to be universally competent in a simulation study and with real-world examples.