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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Quantile Graphical Models: Prediction and Conditional Ind...
Alexandre Belloni, Mingli Chen, Victor Chernozhukov · 2016-07-01 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We propose two types of Quantile Graphical Models (QGMs) --- Conditional Independence Quantile Graphical Models (CIQGMs) and Prediction Quantile Graphical Models (PQGMs). CIQGMs characterize the conditional independence of distributions by evaluating the distributional dependence structure at each quantile index. As such, CIQGMs can be used for validation of the graph structure in the causal graphical models (\cite{pearl2009causality, robins1986new, heckman2015causal}). One main advantage of these models is that we can apply them to large collections of variables driven by non-Gaussian and non-separable shocks. PQGMs characterize the statistical dependencies through the graphs of the best linear predictors under asymmetric loss functions. PQGMs make weaker assumptions than CIQGMs as they allow for misspecification. Because of QGMs' ability to handle large collections of variables and focus on specific parts of the distributions, we could apply them to quantify tail interdependence. The resulting tail risk network can be used for measuring systemic risk contributions that help make inroads in understanding international financial contagion and dependence structures of returns under downside market movements. We develop estimation and inference methods for QGMs focusing on the high-dimensional case, where the number of variables in the graph is large compared to the number of observations. For CIQGMs, these methods and results include valid simultaneous choices of penalty functions, uniform rates of convergence, and confidence regions that are simultaneously valid. We also derive analogous results for PQGMs, which include new results for penalized quantile regressions in high-dimensional settings to handle misspecification, many controls, and a continuum of additional conditioning events.