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math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Robust Survival Estimation under Interval Censoring: Expe...
J. T. Korley · 2025-09-02 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Interval censoring occurs when event times are only known to fall between scheduled assessments, a common design in clinical trials, epidemiology, and reliability studies. Standard right-censoring methods, such as Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression, are not directly applicable and can produce biased results. This study compares three complementary approaches for interval-censored survival data. First, the Turnbull nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) via the EM algorithm recovers the survival distribution without strong assumptions. Second, Weibull and log-normal accelerated failure time (AFT) models with interval likelihoods provide smooth, covariate-adjusted survival curves and interpretable time-ratio effects. Third, Bayesian AFT models extend these tools by quantifying posterior uncertainty, incorporating prior information, and enabling interval-aware model comparisons via PSIS-LOO cross-validation. Simulations across generating distributions, censoring intensities, sample sizes, and covariate structures evaluated the integrated squared error (ISE) for curve recovery, integrated Brier score (IBS) for prediction, and coverage for uncertainty calibration. Results show that the EM achieves the lowest ISE for distribution recovery, AFT models improve predictive performance when families are correctly specified, and Bayesian AFT offers calibrated uncertainty and principled model selection. An application to the ovarian cancer dataset, restructured into interval-censored form, demonstrates the workflow in practice: the EM algorithm reveals the baseline shape, parametric AFT provides covariate-adjusted predictions, and Bayesian AFT validates model adequacy through posterior predictive checks. Together, these methods form a tiered strategy: EM for shape discovery, AFT for covariate-driven prediction, and Bayesian AFT for complete uncertainty quantification and model comparison.