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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Asymmetric Penalties Underlie Proper Loss Functions in Pr...
Erez Buchweitz, João Vitor Romano, Ryan J. Tibshirani · 2025-05-02 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Accurately forecasting the probability distribution of phenomena of interest is a classic and ever more widespread goal in statistics and decision theory. In comparison to point forecasts, probabilistic forecasts aim to provide a more complete and informative characterization of the target variable. This endeavor is only fruitful, however, if a forecast is "close" to the distribution it attempts to predict. The role of a loss function -- also known as a scoring rule -- is to make this precise by providing a quantitative measure of proximity between a forecast distribution and target random variable. Numerous loss functions have been proposed in the literature, with a strong focus on proper losses, that is, losses whose expectations are minimized when the forecast distribution is the same as the target. In this paper, we show that a broad class of proper loss functions penalize asymmetrically, in the sense that underestimating a given parameter of the target distribution can incur larger loss than overestimating it, or vice versa. Our theory covers many popular losses, such as the logarithmic, continuous ranked probability, quadratic, and spherical losses, as well as the energy and threshold-weighted generalizations of continuous ranked probability loss. To complement our theory, we present experiments with real epidemiological, meteorological, and retail forecast data sets. Further, as an implication of the loss asymmetries revealed by our work, we show that hedging is possible under a setting of distribution shift.