惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

博客园 - 聂微东
GbyAI
GbyAI
G
Google Developers Blog
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
博客园 - 叶小钗
A
About on SuperTechFans
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
雷峰网
雷峰网
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
博客园 - Franky
B
Blog RSS Feed
Y
Y Combinator Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
罗磊的独立博客
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Optimality in Mean Estimation: Beyond Worst-Case, Beyond ...
Trung Dang, Jasper C. H. Lee, Maoyuan Song, Paul Valiant · 2023-11-22 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

There is growing interest in improving our algorithmic understanding of fundamental statistical problems such as mean estimation, driven by the goal of understanding the limits of what we can extract from valuable data. The state of the art results for mean estimation in $\mathbb{R}$ are 1) the optimal sub-Gaussian mean estimator by [LV22], with the tight sub-Gaussian constant for all distributions with finite but unknown variance, and 2) the analysis of the median-of-means algorithm by [BCL13] and a lower bound by [DLLO16], characterizing the big-O optimal errors for distributions for which only a $1+α$ moment exists for $α\in (0,1)$. Both results, however, are optimal only in the worst case. We initiate the fine-grained study of the mean estimation problem: Can algorithms leverage useful features of the input distribution to beat the sub-Gaussian rate, without explicit knowledge of such features? We resolve this question with an unexpectedly nuanced answer: "Yes in limited regimes, but in general no". For any distribution $p$ with a finite mean, we construct a distribution $q$ whose mean is well-separated from $p$'s, yet $p$ and $q$ are not distinguishable with high probability, and $q$ further preserves $p$'s moments up to constants. The main consequence is that no reasonable estimator can asymptotically achieve better than the sub-Gaussian error rate for any distribution, matching the worst-case result of [LV22]. More generally, we introduce a new definitional framework to analyze the fine-grained optimality of algorithms, which we call "neighborhood optimality", interpolating between the unattainably strong "instance optimality" and the trivially weak "admissibility" definitions. Applying the new framework, we show that median-of-means is neighborhood optimal, up to constant factors. It is open to find a neighborhood-optimal estimator without constant factor slackness.