惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

爱范儿
爱范儿
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
GbyAI
GbyAI
Vercel News
Vercel News
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
V
Visual Studio Blog
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
腾讯CDC
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
J
Java Code Geeks
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
P
Proofpoint News Feed
雷峰网
雷峰网
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
Y
Y Combinator Blog

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Combining Predictive Distributions
Tilmann Gneiting, Roopesh Ranjan · 2011-06-09 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Predictive distributions need to be aggregated when probabilistic forecasts are merged, or when expert opinions expressed in terms of probability distributions are fused. We take a prediction space approach that applies to discrete, mixed discrete-continuous and continuous predictive distributions alike, and study combination formulas for cumulative distribution functions from the perspectives of coherence, probabilistic and conditional calibration, and dispersion. Both linear and non-linear aggregation methods are investigated, including generalized, spread-adjusted and beta-transformed linear pools. The effects and techniques are demonstrated theoretically, in simulation examples, and in case studies on density forecasts for S&P 500 returns and daily maximum temperature at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.