惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
博客园 - 聂微东
博客园 - Franky
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
雷峰网
雷峰网
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
L
LangChain Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
H
Help Net Security
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
Y
Y Combinator Blog
Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
IT之家
IT之家
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
罗磊的独立博客
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
博客园 - 【当耐特】
P
Proofpoint News Feed
D
DataBreaches.Net

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Robust Output Analysis with Monte-Carlo Methodology
Kimia Vahdat, Sara Shashaani · 2022-07-28 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the impact of input data uncertainty in the model outputs to increase robustness. However, most developments are applicable assuming that the input data adheres to a parametric family of distributions. We propose a unified output analysis framework for simulation and machine learning outputs through the lens of Monte Carlo sampling. This framework provides nonparametric quantification of the variance and bias induced in the outputs with higher-order accuracy. Our new bias-corrected estimation from the model outputs leverages the extension of fast iterative bootstrap sampling and higher-order influence functions. For the scalability of the proposed estimation methods, we devise budget-optimal rules and leverage control variates for variance reduction. Our theoretical and numerical results demonstrate a clear advantage in building more robust confidence intervals from the model outputs with higher coverage probability.