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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Asymptotic nonparametric statistical analysis of stationa...
Daniil Ryabko · 2019-03-30 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Stationarity is a very general, qualitative assumption, that can be assessed on the basis of application specifics. It is thus a rather attractive assumption to base statistical analysis on, especially for problems for which less general qualitative assumptions, such as independence or finite memory, clearly fail. However, it has long been considered too general to allow for statistical inference to be made. One of the reasons for this is that rates of convergence, even of frequencies to the mean, are not available under this assumption alone. Recently, it has been shown that, while some natural and simple problems such as homogeneity, are indeed provably impossible to solve if one only assumes that the data is stationary (or stationary ergodic), many others can be solved using rather simple and intuitive algorithms. The latter problems include clustering and change point estimation. In this volume I summarize these results. The emphasis is on asymptotic consistency, since this the strongest property one can obtain assuming stationarity alone. While for most of the problems for which a solution is found this solution is algorithmically realizable, the main objective in this area of research, the objective which is only partially attained, is to understand what is possible and what is not possible to do for stationary time series. The considered problems include homogeneity testing, clustering with respect to distribution, clustering with respect to independence, change-point estimation, identity testing, and the general question of composite hypotheses testing. For the latter problem, a topological criterion for the existence of a consistent test is presented. In addition, several open questions are discussed.