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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning 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An Upper Confidence Bound Approach to Estimating the Maximum Mean
Zhang Kun, Liu Guangwu, Shi Wen · 2024-08-08 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Estimating the maximum mean finds a variety of applications in practice. In this paper, we study estimation of the maximum mean using an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach where the sampling budget is adaptively allocated to one of the systems. We study in depth the existing grand average (GA) estimator, and propose a new largest-size average (LSA) estimator. Specifically, we establish statistical guarantees, including strong consistency, asymptotic mean squared errors, and central limit theorems (CLTs) for both estimators, which are new to the literature. We show that LSA is preferable over GA, as the bias of the former decays at a rate much faster than that of the latter when sample size increases. By using the CLTs, we further construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the maximum mean, and propose a single hypothesis test for a multiple comparison problem with application to clinical trials. Statistical efficiency of the resulting point and interval estimates and the proposed single hypothesis test is demonstrated via numerical examples.