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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Online Performance Estimation with Unlabeled Data: A Baye...
Kevin Slote, Elaine Lee · 2024-01-18 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In the industrial practice of machine learning and statistical modeling, practitioners often work under the assumption of accessible, static, labeled data for evaluation and training. However, this assumption often deviates from reality, where data may be private, encrypted, difficult-to-measure, or unlabeled. In this paper, we bridge this gap by adapting the Hui-Walter paradigm, a method traditionally applied in epidemiology and medicine, to the field of machine learning. This approach enables us to estimate key performance metrics such as false positive rate, false negative rate, and priors in scenarios where no ground truth is available. We further extend this paradigm for handling online data, opening up new possibilities for dynamic data environments. Our methodology involves partitioning data into latent classes to simulate multiple data populations (if natural populations are unavailable) and independently training models to replicate multiple tests. By cross-tabulating binary outcomes across multiple categorizers and multiple populations, we are able to estimate unknown parameters through Gibbs sampling, eliminating the need for ground-truth or labeled data. This paper showcases the potential of our methodology to transform machine learning practices by allowing for accurate model assessment under dynamic and uncertain data conditions.