惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
IT之家
IT之家
博客园 - 【当耐特】
罗磊的独立博客
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
I
InfoQ
B
Blog RSS Feed
腾讯CDC
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
GbyAI
GbyAI
雷峰网
雷峰网
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
D
DataBreaches.Net
The Cloudflare Blog
V
V2EX
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题

math.ST updates on arXiv.org

What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Feature Matching in Time Series Modeling
Yingcun Xia, Howell Tong · 2011-04-15 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In fact, they are characteristically misguided in at least two respects: (i) assuming that there is a true model; (ii) evaluating the efficacy of the estimation as if the postulated model is true. There are numerous examples of models, when fitted by conventional methods, that fail to capture some of the most basic global features of the data, such as cycles with good matching periods, singularities of spectral density functions (especially at the origin) and others. We argue that the shortcomings need not always be due to the model formulation but the inadequacy of the conventional fitting methods. After all, all models are wrong, but some are useful if they are fitted properly. The practical issue becomes one of how to best fit the model to data. Thus, in the absence of a true model, we prefer an alternative approach to conventional model fitting that typically involves one-step-ahead prediction errors. Our primary aim is to match the joint probability distribution of the observable time series, including long-term features of the dynamics that underpin the data, such as cycles, long memory and others, rather than short-term prediction. For want of a better name, we call this specific aim feature matching.