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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Replicability: Terminology, Measuring Success, and Strategy
2025-08-26 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Empirical science needs to be based on facts and claims that can be reproduced. This calls for replicating the studies that proclaim the claims, but practice in most fields still fails to implement this idea. When such studies emerged in the past decade, the results were generally disappointing. There have been an overwhelming number of papers addressing the ``reproducibility crisis'' in the last 20 years. Nevertheless, terminology is not yet settled, and there is no consensus about when a replication should be called successful. This paper intends to clarify such issues. A fundamental problem in empirical science is that usual claims only state that effects are non-zero, and such statements are scientifically void. An effect must have a \emph{relevant} size to become a reasonable item of knowledge. Therefore, estimation of an effect, with an indication of precision, forms a substantial scientific task, whereas testing it against zero does not. A relevant effect is one that is shown to exceed a relevance threshold. This paradigm has implications for the judgement on replication success. A further issue is the unavoidable variability between studies, called heterogeneity in meta-analysis. Therefore, it is of little value, again, to test for zero difference between an original effect and its replication, but exceedance of a corresponding relevance threshold should be tested. In order to estimate the degree of heterogeneity, more than one replication is needed, and an appropriate indication of the precision of an estimated effect requires such an estimate. These insights, which are discussed in the paper, show the complexity of obtaining solid scientific results, implying the need for a strategy to make replication happen.