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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Sometimes nonparametrics beat parametrics, even when the ...
Morten Byholt, Nils Lid Hjort · 2026-03-19 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

A basic issue in both teaching of and practice of statistics is the interplay between modelling assumptions and inference performance. The general message conveyed is that stronger assumptions lead to better statistical performance of the relevant estimators, tests and confidence intervals, provided that these assumptions hold. On the other hand, fewer assumptions often lead to safer and more robust methods that are good also outside narrow conditions, but not quite as good as specialist methods that exploit such narrower conditions, if these are fulfilled. This interplay is nicely illustrated in the context of density estimation, where parametric and nonparametric methods can be contrasted. The parametric ones have mean squared errors of size $O(n^{-1})$ in terms of sample size $n$ if the parametric model is right, but are not even consistent outside the model. The nonparametric methods are everywhere consistent and have mean squared errors of size $O(n^{-4/5})$ for broad classes of estimands. The point we are making here is that this picture is not universally true! We show that a simple kernel density estimator can perform better than a directly estimated parametric density on the latter's home turf, for small sample sizes, in the sense of mean integrated squared error. Our main example is that of estimating an unknown normal density. In the process of developing and discussing this somewhat counter-intuitive and half-paradoxical example we touch on several tangential issues of interest, pertaining to exact small-sample analysis of density estimators.