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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Detecting Where Effects Occur by Testing Hypotheses in Order
Jake Bowers, David Kim, Nuole Chen · 2026-02-25 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Experimental evaluations of public policy often randomize an intervention within many sites or blocks. Once an overall effect is reported, the question that matters for action is where it occurred. Standard multiple-testing corrections answer with little power because they ignore how the experiment is organized: blocks nest within cohorts, sites, and districts. We organize the hypotheses as a tree that follows this administrative structure and test them top-down, descending into a branch only when its parent null is rejected. We show that stopping rule and valid node-level tests suffice for weak control of the family-wise error rate (FWER). Whether the same procedure also controls the FWER in the strong sense depends on a single quantity computable before any data are seen: an error load that summarizes how rejection probability accumulates along paths through the tree. This diagnostic tells an analyst in advance, from design quantities alone, whether the unadjusted procedure controls the FWER or an adjustment is required. Across 25 block-randomized MDRC education trials it indicates that no adjustment is needed in every one, so the two conditions alone control the FWER while each test runs at the full nominal level; the top-down procedure detects individual blocks that the Hommel correction misses and locates higher-level groups of blocks that bottom-up testing cannot evaluate. For high-error-load designs we derive an adaptive alpha-schedule, prove it controls the FWER on regular, irregular, and pruned trees, and confirm it in simulation. The same diagnostic flags when it is needed: in a design calibrated to the National Job Corps Study, a wide multisite trial of about one hundred centers, the unadjusted procedure inflates the FWER, the adaptive schedule restores control, and top-down testing still detects more affected sites than bottom-up or hierarchical corrections.