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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Probability boxes on totally preordered spaces for multiv...
Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Sebastien Destercke · 2011-03-09 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

A pair of lower and upper cumulative distribution functions, also called probability box or p-box, is among the most popular models used in imprecise probability theory. They arise naturally in expert elicitation, for instance in cases where bounds are specified on the quantiles of a random variable, or when quantiles are specified only at a finite number of points. Many practical and formal results concerning p-boxes already exist in the literature. In this paper, we provide new efficient tools to construct multivariate p-boxes and develop algorithms to draw inferences from them. For this purpose, we formalise and extend the theory of p-boxes using Walley's behavioural theory of imprecise probabilities, and heavily rely on its notion of natural extension and existing results about independence modeling. In particular, we allow p-boxes to be defined on arbitrary totally preordered spaces, hence thereby also admitting multivariate p-boxes via probability bounds over any collection of nested sets. We focus on the cases of independence (using the factorization property), and of unknown dependence (using the Fréchet bounds), and we show that our approach extends the probabilistic arithmetic of Williamson and Downs. Two design problems---a damped oscillator, and a river dike---demonstrate the practical feasibility of our results.