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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Low degree conjecture implies sharp computational thresho...
Jingqiu Ding, Yiding Hua, Lucas Slot, David Steurer · 2025-02-21 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We investigate implications of the (extended) low-degree conjecture (recently formalized in [MW23]) in the context of the symmetric stochastic block model. Assuming the conjecture holds, we establish that no polynomial-time algorithm can weakly recover community labels below the Kesten-Stigum (KS) threshold. In particular, we rule out polynomial-time estimators that, with constant probability, achieve correlation with the true communities that is significantly better than random. Whereas, above the KS threshold, polynomial-time algorithms are known to achieve constant correlation with the true communities with high probability[Mas14,AS15]. To our knowledge, we provide the first rigorous evidence for the sharp transition in recovery rate for polynomial-time algorithms at the KS threshold. Notably, under a stronger version of the low-degree conjecture, our lower bound remains valid even when the number of blocks diverges. Furthermore, our results provide evidence of a computational-to-statistical gap in learning the parameters of stochastic block models. In contrast to prior work, which either (i) rules out polynomial-time algorithms for hypothesis testing with 1-o(1) success probability [Hopkins18, BBK+21a] under the low-degree conjecture, or (ii) rules out low-degree polynomials for learning the edge connection probability matrix [LG23], our approach provides stronger lower bounds on the recovery and learning problem. Our proof combines low-degree lower bounds from [Hopkins18, BBK+21a] with graph splitting and cross-validation techniques. In order to rule out general recovery algorithms, we employ the correlation preserving projection method developed in [HS17].