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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Algorithmic stability implies training-conditional covera...
Ruiting Liang, Rina Foygel Barber · 2023-11-08 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

In a supervised learning problem, given a predicted value that is the output of some trained model, how can we quantify our uncertainty around this prediction? Distribution-free predictive inference aims to construct prediction intervals around this output, with valid coverage that does not rely on assumptions on the distribution of the data or the nature of the model training algorithm. Existing methods in this area, including conformal prediction and jackknife+, offer theoretical guarantees that hold marginally (i.e., on average over a draw of training and test data). In contrast, training-conditional coverage is a stronger notion of validity that ensures predictive coverage of the test point for most draws of the training data, and is thus a more desirable property in practice. Training-conditional coverage was shown by Vovk [2012] to hold for the split conformal method, but recent work by Bian and Barber [2023] proves that such validity guarantees are not possible for the full conformal and jackknife+ methods without further assumptions. In this paper, we show that an assumption of algorithmic stability ensures that the training-conditional coverage property holds for the full conformal and jackknife+ methods.