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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Parametric and nonparametric probability distribution est...
Taku Moriyama · 2021-11-06 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Extreme value theory has constructed asymptotic properties of the sample maximum. This study concerns probability distribution estimation of the sample maximum. The traditional approach is parametric fitting to the limiting distribution -- the generalized extreme value distribution; however, the model in non-limiting cases is misspecified to a certain extent. We propose a plug-in type of nonparametric estimator that does not need model specification. Asymptotic properties of the distribution estimator are derived. The simulation study numerically investigates the relative performance in finite-sample cases. This study assumes that the underlying distribution of the original sample belongs to one of the Hall class, the Weibull class or the bounded class, whose types of the limiting distributions are all different: the Frechet, Gumbel or Weibull. It is proven that the convergence rate of the parametric fitting estimator depends on both the extreme value index and the second-order parameter and gets slower as the extreme value index tends to zero. On the other hand, the rate of the nonparametric estimator is proven to be independent of the extreme value index under certain conditions. The numerical performances of the parametric fitting estimator and the nonparametric estimator are compared, which shows that the nonparametric estimator performs better, especially for the extreme value index close to zero. Finally, we report two real case studies: the Potomac River peak stream flow (cfs) data and the Danish Fire Insurance data.