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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Cross-Validation with Antithetic Gaussian Randomization
Sifan Liu, Snigdha Panigrahi, Jake A. Soloff · 2024-12-19 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We introduce a new cross-validation method based on an equicorrelated Gaussian randomization scheme. Our method is well-suited for problems where sample splitting is infeasible, either because the data violate the assumption of independent and identically distributed samples, or because there are insufficient samples to form representative train-test data pairs. In such problems, our method provides a simple, principled, and computationally efficient approach to estimating prediction error, often outperforming standard cross-validation while requiring only a small number of repetitions. Drawing inspiration from recent splitting techniques like data fission and data thinning, our method constructs train-test data pairs using Gaussian randomization. Our main contribution is the introduction of an antithetic Gaussian randomization scheme, involving a carefully designed correlation structure among the randomization variables. We show theoretically that this antithetic construction can eliminate the bias of cross-validation for a broad class of smooth prediction functions, without inflating variance. Through simulations across a range of data types and loss functions, we demonstrate that our estimator outperforms existing methods for prediction error estimation.