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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band 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Pass@k: A Bayesian Framework for Large Language Model Evaluation The Good, the Bad, and the Sampled: a No-Regret Approach to Safe Online Classification GOSPA and T-GOSPA quasi-metrics for evaluation of multi-object tracking algorithms A note on the unique properties of the Kullback--Leibler divergence for sampling via gradient flows Multi-Armed Bandits With Machine Learning-Generated Surrogate Rewards Efficient compression of neural networks and datasets Out-of-Distribution Generalization of In-Context Learning: A Low-Dimensional Subspace Perspective Super-fast Rates of Convergence for Neural Network Classifiers under the Hard Margin Condition Sharp Gaussian approximations for Decentralized Federated Learning Learning Operators by Regularized Stochastic Gradient Descent with Operator-valued Kernels Smoothed Analysis of Learning from Positive Samples Statistical Impossibility and Possibility of Aligning LLMs with Human Preferences: From Condorcet Paradox to Nash Equilibrium Sharp Risk 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Scoring Interval Forecasts: Equal-Tailed, Shortest, and Modal Interval
Jonas Brehmer, Tilmann Gneiting · 2020-07-11 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

We consider different types of predictive intervals and ask whether they are elicitable, i.e. are unique minimizers of a loss or scoring function in expectation. The equal-tailed interval is elicitable, with a rich class of suitable loss functions, though subject to translation invariance, or positive homogeneity and differentiability, the Winkler interval score becomes a unique choice. The modal interval also is elicitable, with a sole consistent scoring function, up to equivalence. However, the shortest interval fails to be elicitable relative to practically relevant classes of distributions. These results provide guidance in interval forecast evaluation and support recent choices of performance measures in forecast competitions.

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