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What is Learnable in Valiant's Theory of the Learnable? Learning Perturbations to Extrapolate Your LLM Byzantine-Robust Distributed Sparse Learning Revisited The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback A proximal gradient algorithm for composite log-concave sampling Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Approximation of Maximally Monotone Operators : A Graph Convergence Perspective Posterior Contraction Rates for Sparse Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks in Anisotropic Besov Spaces MIST: Reliable Streaming Decision Trees for Online Class-Incremental Learning via McDiarmid Bound A Spectral Framework for Closed-Form Relative Density Estimation Fast Rates for Offline Contextual Bandits with Forward-KL Regularization under Single-Policy Concentrability Higher-Order Equilibrium Tracking for EM-Compressible Online Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers A Note on Non-Negative $L_1$-Approximating Polynomials Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning Linear Response Estimators for Singular Statistical Models Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey Robust stochastic first order methods in heavy-tailed noise via medoid mini-batch gradient sampling Every Feedforward Neural Network Definable in an o-Minimal Structure Has Finite Sample Complexity Adaptive auditing of AI systems with anytime-valid guarantees Locally Near Optimal Piecewise Linear Regression in High Dimensions via Difference of Max-Affine Functions Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies Covariate Balancing and Riesz Regression Should Be Guided by the Neyman Orthogonal Score in Debiased Machine Learning A Unified Pair-GRPO Family: From Implicit to Explicit Preference Constraints for Stable and General RL Alignment Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics A Fine-Grained Understanding of Uniform Convergence for Halfspaces CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency Ratio-based Loss Functions Optimal Confidence Band for Kernel Gradient Flow Estimator A renormalization-group inspired lattice-based framework for piecewise generalized linear models
Rank and Factor Loadings Estimation in Time Series Tensor...
Weilin Chen, Clifford Lam · 2022-08-08 · via math.ST updates on arXiv.org

Tensor time series data appears naturally in a lot of fields, including finance and economics. As a major dimension reduction tool, similar to its factor model counterpart, the idiosyncratic components of a tensor time series factor model can exhibit serial correlations, especially in financial and economic applications. This rules out a lot of state-of-the-art methods that assume white idiosyncratic components, or even independent/Gaussian data. While the traditional higher order orthogonal iteration (HOOI) is proved to be convergent to a set of factor loading matrices, the closeness of them to the true underlying factor loading matrices are in general not established, or only under some strict circumstances like having i.i.d. Gaussian noises (Zhang and Xia, 2018). Under the presence of serial and cross-correlations in the idiosyncratic components and time series variables with only bounded fourth order moments, we propose a pre-averaging method that accumulates information from tensor fibres for better estimating all the factor loading spaces. The estimated directions corresponding to the strongest factors are then used for projecting the data for a potentially improved re-estimation of the factor loading spaces themselves, with theoretical guarantees and rate of convergence spelt out. We also propose a new rank estimation method which utilizes correlation information from the projected data, in the same spirit as Fan, Guo and Zheng (2022) for factor models with independent data. Extensive simulation results reveal competitive performance of our rank and factor loading estimators relative to other state-of-the-art or traditional alternatives. A set of matrix-valued portfolio return data is also analyzed.