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Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for Primes in Short Intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives A Unified Framework for Critical Scaling of Inverse Temperature in Self-Attention Expected Batch Optimal Transport Plans and Consequences for Flow Matching Partial Model Sharing Improves Byzantine Resilience in Federated Conformal Prediction GRAFT-ATHENA: Self-Improving Agentic Teams for Autonomous Discovery and Evolutionary Numerical Algorithms Uniform Scaling Limits in AdamW-Trained Transformers Constant-Target Energy Matching: A Unified Framework for Continuous and Discrete Density Estimation Scaling Limits of Long-Context Transformers Generalized Wasserstein Flow Matching: Transport Plans, Everywhere, All at Once Convergence Analysis of Newton's Method for Neural Networks in the Overparameterized Limit Convergent Stochastic Training of Attention and Understanding LoRA Universality of the fluctuations of the free energy in generalized Sherrington-Kirkpatrick models and the log likelihood ratio in spiked Wigner models Expressivity of Bi-Lipschitz Normalizing Flows: A Score-Based Diffusion Perspective Time-Inhomogeneous Preconditioned Langevin Dynamics Matrix-Decoupled Concentration for Autoregressive Sequences: Dimension-Free Guarantees for Sparse Long-Context Rewards Convex-Geometric Error Bounds for Positive-Weight Kernel Quadrature Variational Smoothing and Inference for SDEs from Sparse Data with Dynamic Neural Flows Grokability in five inequalities Almost-Orthogonality in Lp Spaces: A Case Study with Grok On Computing Total Variation Distance Between Mixtures of Product Distributions Universality in Deep Neural Networks: An approach via the Lindeberg exchange principle Soft-to-Hard Routing in Sparse Mixture-of-Experts Models Learning Discriminators for Resampling in the Ensemble Gaussian Mixture Filter through a Normalizing Flow Approach Decentralized Proximal Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics A Review of the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve and a Proof About the Area Beneath It Stochastic Scaling Limits and Synchronization by Noise in Deep Transformer Models Well-Conditioned Oblivious Perturbations in Linear Space Mathematical Foundations for Peer-to-Peer Lattice Computation Achieving the Kesten-Stigum bound in the non-uniform hypergraph stochastic block model Phase Transitions in the Fluctuations of Functionals of Random Neural Networks Ultrametric OGP - 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The Last Success Problem with Samples
Toru Yoshinaga, Yasushi Kawase · 2023-08-18 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

The last success problem is an optimal stopping problem that aims to maximize the probability of stopping on the last success in a sequence of independent $n$ Bernoulli trials. In the classical setting where complete information about the distributions is available, Bruss~\cite{B00} provided an optimal stopping policy that ensures a winning probability of $1/e$. However, assuming complete knowledge of the distributions is unrealistic in many practical applications. This paper investigates a variant of the last success problem where samples from each distribution are available instead of complete knowledge of them. When a single sample from each distribution is allowed, we provide a deterministic policy that guarantees a winning probability of $1/4$. This is best possible by the upper bound provided by Nuti and Vondrák~\cite{NV23}. Furthermore, for any positive constant $ε$, we show that a constant number of samples from each distribution is sufficient to guarantee a winning probability of $1/e-ε$.

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