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Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Rare events in a polling system: Rays and Spirals
Robert D. Foley, David R. McDonald · 2024-01-08 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

It's a situation everyone dreads. A road is down to one lane for repairs. Traffic is let through one way until the backlog clears and then traffic is let through the other way to clear that backlog and so on. When stuck in a very long queue it is inevitable to wonder how did I get into this mess? We study a polling model with a server having exponential service time with mean $1/μ$ alternating between two queues, emptying one queue before switching to the other. Customers arrive at queue one according to a Poisson process with rate $λ_1$ and at queue two with rate $λ_2$. We discuss how we get at a rare event with a large number of customers in the system. In fact this can happen in two different ways depending on the parameters. In one case one queue simply explodes and runs away without emptying. We call this the ray case. In the other spiral case the queues are successively emptied but in a losing battle as the system zigzags to the rare event. This dichotomy extends to the steady state distribution and leads to quite different asymptotic behaviour in the two cases.