惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

罗磊的独立博客
L
LangChain Blog
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
IT之家
IT之家
B
Blog
博客园_首页
博客园 - 司徒正美
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
博客园 - 聂微东
I
InfoQ
美团技术团队
GbyAI
GbyAI
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
H
Help Net Security
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
A
About on SuperTechFans
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
The Cloudflare Blog

math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Optimal Vaccination Policy to Prevent Endemicity: A Stoch...
Félix Foutel-Rodier, Arthur Charpentier, Hélène Guérin · 2023-06-24 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

We examine here the effects of recurrent vaccination and waning immunity on the establishment of an endemic equilibrium in a population. An individual-based model that incorporates memory effects for transmission rate during infection and subsequent immunity is introduced, considering stochasticity at the individual level. By letting the population size going to infinity, we derive a set of equations describing the large scale behavior of the epidemic. The analysis of the model's equilibria reveals a criterion for the existence of an endemic equilibrium, which depends on the rate of immunity loss and the distribution of time between booster doses. The outcome of a vaccination policy in this context is influenced by the efficiency of the vaccine in blocking transmissions and the distribution pattern of booster doses within the population. Strategies with evenly spaced booster shots at the individual level prove to be more effective in preventing disease spread compared to irregularly spaced boosters, as longer intervals without vaccination increase susceptibility and facilitate more efficient disease transmission. We provide an expression for the critical fraction of the population required to adhere to the vaccination policy in order to eradicate the disease, that resembles a well-known threshold for preventing an outbreak with an imperfect vaccine. We also investigate the consequences of unequal vaccine access in a population and prove that, under reasonable assumptions, fair vaccine allocation is the optimal strategy to prevent endemicity.