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Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Anatomy of an extreme event: What can we infer about the ...
Wesley W. Erickson, Daniel A. Steck · 2020-02-07 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Extreme events are by nature rare and difficult to predict, yet are often much more important than frequent, typical events. An interesting counterpoint to the prediction of such events is their retrodiction -- given a process in an outlier state, how did the events leading up to this endpoint unfold? In particular, was there only a single, massive event, or was the history a composite of multiple, smaller but still significant events? To investigate this problem we take heavy-tailed stochastic processes (specifically,the symmetric, $α$-stable Lévy processes) as prototypical random walks. A natural and useful characteristic scale arises from the analysis of processes conditioned to arrive in a particular final state (Lévy bridges). For final displacements longer than this scale, the scenario of a single, long jump is most likely, even though it corresponds to a rare, extreme event. On the other hand, for small final displacements, histories involving extreme events tend to be suppressed. To further illustrate the utility of this analysis, we show how it provides an intuitive framework for understanding three problems related to boundary crossings of heavy-tailed processes. These examples illustrate how intuition fails to carry over from diffusive processes, even very close to the Gaussian limit. One example yields a computationally and conceptually useful representation of Lévy bridges that illustrates how conditioning impacts the extreme-event content of a random walk. The other examples involve the conditioned boundary-crossing problem and the ordinary first-escape problem; we discuss the observability of the latter example in experiments with laser-cooled atoms.