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Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Reemergence of the Epidemic Threshold in SIRS Infections ...
Andreas Göbel, Nicolas Klodt, Martin S. Krejca · 2026-05-19 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

The SIRS process is a continuous-time process for how infections spread on a graph. In this model, each vertex is in one of the following three states: susceptible (to the infection; S), infected (I), or recovered (R) and thus immune to the infection. For each vertex, the transition among these states is exponentially distributed according to the parameters of the process. It was recently shown that recovered vertices effectively stop the infection on stars, that is, the expected survival time of SIRS processes on stars is bounded from above by a polynomial in the number of the vertices, independently of the infection rate of the process. The setting where the process has, so far, been shown to exhibit epidemic behavior, i.e., super-polynomial survival time when the infection rate is above some threshold value, requires the host graph to be an expander. This is in contrast to the shown behavior of the well-studied SIS process, a related model in which vertices never transition to R, and in which even sparsely connected graphs, in particular stars, exhibit epidemic behavior. In this work, we show that expansion of the host graph is not a necessary condition for the SIRS process to result in an epidemic. Our main technical contribution shows that, while the SIRS process does not survive super-polynomially long on a single star, it does so on a network of poly-logarithmic (in the total number of vertices) stars of polynomial size. In addition, we show that such substructures appear in popular complex network models, providing for each a bound on the epidemic threshold. In particular, on hyperbolic random graphs, we compare our threshold for connected stars with the previously known one based on expansion, finding that both of them can be more permissive depending on the graph's power-law exponent and the rate that determines how long immunity lasts.