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Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for Primes in Short Intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Uniting Parametric Uncertainty and Tipping Diagrams
Kerstin Lux, Peter Ashwin, Richard Wood, Christian Kuehn · 2021-10-29 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular importance for North Atlantic heat transport and is thought to be potentially at risk of tipping. Given a model of such a subsystem that accurately includes the relevant physical processes, whether tipping occurs or not, will depend on model parameters that typically are uncertain. Reducing this parametric uncertainty is important to understand the likelihood of tipping behavior being present in the system and possible tipping locations. In this letter, we develop improved estimates for the parametric uncertainty by inferring probability distributions for the model parameters based on physical constraints and by using a Bayesian inversion technique. To visualize the impact of parametric uncertainty, we extend classical tipping diagrams by visualizing probabilistic bifurcation curves according to the inferred distribution of the model parameter. Furthermore, we highlight the uncertain locations of tipping points along the probabilistic bifurcation curves. We showcase our probabilistic visualizations of the tipping behavior using a simple box-model of the AMOC, the Stommel-Cessi model [5].