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A behavioral interpretation of belief functions
Timber Kerkvliet, Ronald Meester · 2017-01-31 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Shafer's belief functions were introduced in the seventies of the previous century as a mathematical tool in order to model epistemic probability. One of the reasons that they were not picked up by mainstream probability was the lack of a behavioral interpretation. In this paper we provide such a behavioral interpretation, and re-derive Shafer's belief functions via a betting interpretation reminiscent of the classical Dutch Book Theorem for probability distributions. We relate our betting interpretation of belief functions to the existing literature.

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