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Parisian ruin of locally self-similar Gaussian processes
Svyatoslav M. Novikov · 2026-04-01 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

We derive exact tail asymptotics of the Parisian ruin probability for Gaussian risk models driven by locally self-similar Gaussian processes with a power-type deterministic trend. The considered setting includes non-stationary Gaussian processes whose local correlation structure is governed by a self-similar limiting process, extending classical fractional Brownian motion models. The asymptotic behaviour is shown to depend on the interplay between the local variance decay, the self-similarity index, and the trend exponent, leading to several distinct regimes. In each regime, the ruin probability admits an explicit asymptotic representation involving Parisian Pickands-type constants. The analysis relies on a uniform Pickands lemma allowing for families of limiting Gaussian fields, extending existing double-sum techniques and enabling the treatment of locally self-similar Gaussian risk models.