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Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Tight tail probability bounds for distribution-free decis...
Ernst Roos, Ruud Brekelmans, Wouter van Eekelen, Dick den Hertog · 2020-10-15 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the unboundedness of the underlying support and are not considered realistic in many applications. We provide alternative tight lower and upper bounds on the tail probability given a bounded support, mean and mean absolute deviation of the random variable. We obtain these bounds as exact solutions to semi-infinite linear programs. We leverage the bounds for distribution-free analysis of the newsvendor model, monopolistic pricing, and stop-loss reinsurance. We also exploit the bounds for safe approximations of sums of correlated random variables, and to find convex reformulations of single and joint ambiguous chance constraints that are ubiquitous in distributionally robust optimization.