We generalize the Benjamini-Pemantle-Peres estimate relating hitting probability and Martin capacity to the setting of manifolds with Ricci curvature bounded below. As applications we obtain: (1) a sharp estimate for the probability that Brownian motion comes close to the high curvature part of a Ricci-flat manifold, (2) a proof of an unpublished theorem of Naber that every noncollapsed limit of Ricci-flat manifolds is a weak solution of the Einstein equations, (3) an effective intersection estimate for two independent Brownian motions on manifolds with non-negative Ricci curvature and positive asymptotic volume ratio. We also obtain generalizations of (1) and (2) for the manifolds with two-sided Ricci bounds and Einstein manifolds with nonzero Einstein constant.